10.10.10

Is Europe declining?

After a tweet that I was asked about decline in Europe, I tried to make a report on my argument that european states are indeed declining. So, I thought of starting referring very short to political, economic, social and business environment of EU (and its geographical competitors). I tried not to refer to historical events, but simply to facts that shows some decline for european states. 


"In 1900 Europe accounted for a quarter of the world's population. Estimates suggest that by 2060 it could comprise just 6 per cent, a third of whom will be more than 65 years old. In contrast China and India already make up a third of the world's population and India at least is set for what is called a demographic dividend, with the working age population expected to rise as a share of the total till 2050".

External Political Environment (EU):
"Our leaders are peddling delusions. The eurozone has not been saved, the EU has no foreign policy, and others are making history". The truth is that there is no european leadership any more, either internally, or externally. Moreover the question "Who is in charge of the EU?" is what Nigel Farage asked his colleagues in the European Parliament few months ago.
 Saturday's Financial Times has a sobering response, "Leaders turn their backs on Giscard's vision," by George Parker and Joshua Chaffin to their own question: "Does this all signal a death of European ambition?"

Internal Political Environment (Nation States):  We could examine demographic trends and business indicators.
Demographics: "In terms of demography, culture and economic structure, Europe tends to be at one end of the world's spectrum: old, rich, seeking stability. The rising powers in Asia and elsewhere tend to be younger, faster growing, more ambitious and hungrier for change and for growth. They are less risk-averse, and more likely to see the future in terms of opportunity rather than threat".
Countries like Russia lose every year app. 700.000 population. 
 Labour Unions and Socialism: Labour Unions in the EU have lost its power. Its HR have vanished and the new generation does nothing, except from 700euro generation in Greece and 1000euro generation in Italy.
The financial crisis provides social democrats with a golden opportunity to dispense with their neoliberal frame of thought and action.
 
 Business Environment. In EU, bureaucracy remains still, except from the UK and countries like FYROM. Moreover, in business geopolitical terms, Europe's diminishing stature has been a long-term trend marked by decolonisation, so lost its control in resources that Europe always had for free (Asia, Africa). In addittion, the EU cannot follow the startup environment in the States, that makes money go around online. VC funding, angel investment and seed capital is something that Europe is really far away from implementing any policies on that... not only in terms of research, but also in terms of networking and clustering.
 Doing Business shows Singapore, New Zealand, Hong Kong, USA and UK at top-5 (2010). Germany is 25th, France is 31st and Greece at the 109th place. China (3, 46, 89), India (133), Russia (120).

The 2010 decline of EURO. 
"The truth is that the European Monetary Union is not backed by a European power, with a sphere of influence that is dependent on Europe for its security and development, into which Europe can channel resources, and with which it can intensify trade, adopting the euro as an international currency". 

Euro was really strong currency and europeans (If united) could play really hard with it. But all this, before the Greek crisis takes place. Greece acted as the Trojan horse for EURO (with the blessing of the EU leaders) and some days ago, Germany awarded the Greek PM for its contribution to German economy and Junker told journalists that he knew. Europe cannot be happy with all of that.


IT: Which country has the most mobile-phone connections in the world? According to the International Telecommunications Union, China is by far the largest, with an estimated 641 million mobile subscribers as of the end of 2008—more than twice the number five years earlier and easily double the market in the U.S.
China and India lead global development, with Turkey playing a really leading role as well in regional level. In Europe, the Nordic countries lead the parade of nations most advanced in the use of information technology. 

So, where is the money? Banks across Europe have only profit. HSBC, Barclays and the Bank of Scotland had gains 20 billion euros, in the middle of the crisis... Banks have gathered both private and public capital. It was given to them from the states and now banks have all the money. States are broken, they are being lent money from the Banks...

And security? Security is now an industry- what defence  and arms race was some decades ago. Western states now spend huge amounts not for development and social systems but for security reasons. Cameras, police etc now are of major role in states agenda. And they cost a lot of money. 

So can we make a definite prediction? Of course not, because everything changes so fast, that any prediction could be false. But If we take a look at individual states, their production systems and their societies, we could have a conclusion. What can we indeed understand is that while the rest of the world, all ex-european colonies are moving fast with strategy, Europe cannot lead and even follow global trends and global evolution of information and technology. European societies are getting older, have consumption based production systems, low ability of producing wealth-fast, bureaucracy, and lack of leadership and cash. The new role of the European state is tax collector and security provider- for whom?

Sources
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/mar2010/gb20100325_046502.htm
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/mar2009/gb20090326_580078.htm
http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-spine/the-accelerating-decline-europe
http://cgis.jpost.com/Blogs/warpedmirror/entry/the_decline_of_europe_posted
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/19/europe-sleepwalk-decline-wake
http://www.opendemocracy.net/philippe-marliere/decline-of-europes-social-democratic-parties
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8661385.stm
http://www.overpopulation.org/older.html
http://www.doingbusiness.org/economyrankings/
http://business.rediff.com/column/2010/may/24/guest-celebrating-the-decline-of-europe.htm

Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια: